Thursday, September 26, 2024

Capital Markets: "China's Politburo Validates and Extends Pivot while the US Dollar Sees Yesterday's Gains Pared"

Mr. Chandler zeroes in on the most important piece of information coming out of Beijing in the last 24 - 72 hours.

As the South China Morning Post put it:

Holding a Politburo meeting to discuss economic affairs in September is a rare move for the authorities....

From Marc to Market: 

Overview: After its recent losses were extended, the dollar reversed higher in North America yesterday. Technically, this looks to have ended the sharp drop over the last couple of weeks, but there has been no follow-through gains today and a consolidative tone emerged. G10 currencies are firmer today, led by the recovery in the Antipodeans. The Swiss National Bank delivered the expected 25 bp rate cut, but the Swiss franc is up about 0.25%. Emerging market currencies are mixed, though central European currencies are mostly firmer.

China's Politburo threw its weight behind the new measures and seemed to signal more to come. This helped extend the CSI 300 gains by 4.3%, which was sufficient to turn it positive for the year. The Hang Seng and the index of mainland stocks that trade there also advanced by more than 4%. Japanese and South Korean markets rose more than 2.5%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1% and US index futures are poised to gap higher at the opening. European benchmark 10-year yields are 2-4 bp lower, and peripheral premiums over Germany are a little narrower. UK Gilts are bucking the move and are four basis points higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a little softer near 3.77%. Gold is firm near yesterday’s record high (~$2670). With Saudi Arabia seemingly committed to reducing its production restraint and constructive developments in Libya, oil is trading sharply lower. November WTI, which was near $72.40 on Tuesday, traded down to $67.15 today before finding bids. It is now around $68.50. Yesterday's low was near $69.25.

Asia Pacific
Beijing has continued unveiling measures, with the Politburo formally saying that it seeks to stop the decline in house prices and promote employment....

....MUCH MORE