Thursday, February 29, 2024

Speculators Bet On A Bottom: "Chile's SQM posts profit down 82% as lithium prices slide"

From Reuters, February 29:

Chile's SQM the world's second-largest lithium producer, on Wednesday posted an 82% fall in its fourth-quarter net profit from a year earlier, below forecasts as prices for the key battery metal continued to slide from earlier peaks.

The miner, which also produces fertilizers and industrial chemicals, reported a quarterly net profit of $205.9 million, below the $317 million expected by analysts polled by LSEG, after a gradual slide in earnings over 2023....
....MUCH MORE

The stock is up 10% (+$4.60) at $50.62. It has been a long couple years for the longs:

Chart Image

TradingView

Here's the last TradingEconomics commentary and price chart for lithium in China (prices in yuan):

Lithium carbonate prices eased to CNY 95,500, matching the over-two-year low from mid January and holding the 80% plunge in 2023 as the market continued to struggle with a considerable surplus. New estimates showed that NEV sales in China plunged by nearly 40% from the previous month in January, stretching the pessimism following the slowdown from the previous year. The slowdown in electric vehicle sales in China limited lithium demand for battery manufacturers, driving factories to skip their typical restocking season. Instead, firms took advantage of high inventories following the supply glut caused by extensive subsidies from Beijing throughout 2022. The developments drove key market players to forecast the next lithium deficit to return only in 2028, an aggressive twist from speculations of persistent shortfalls that lifted lithium prices to CNY 600,000 in November 2022.


source: tradingeconomics.com

If interested here are our posts mentioning lithium over that time period, we were pretty bearish. Probably the most interesting event was the attempt by the Chinese to form a cartel to support the price at 250,000. Didn't work.

And why would the Chinese want to support the price?

Two of China’s Biggest Lithium Companies Warn Of Plunging Profits Due To Battery Metal Price Collapse
These are major, major players. Ganfang is the world's second largest lithium processor and Tianqi via its stakes in SQM and Talison mines around half the world's lithium.