Friday, December 1, 2023

Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "...small companies are being ‘garroted’ by the ‘7 Fed Horsemen of the Apocalypse’"

This article was in the queue in early November and someone (ahem) missed it.

From Fortune, October 27:

Forget about that hot GDP report—small companies are being ‘garroted’ by the ‘7 Fed Horsemen of the Apocalypse,’ top strategist warns

Albert Edwards has made a name for himself in recent years dishing out some of the most controversial takes on Wall Street. For instance, the strategist at French investment bank Société Générale memorably detailed the rise of “greedflation” during the pandemic—the idea that corporations took advantage of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war to increase profits—by arguing that it may even threaten the future of capitalism. And he warned earlier this month that the current stock market reminds him of the era that preceded the Oct. 19, 1987, crash—a day known as Black Monday, when the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 22.6%.

The veteran market watcher is famous for his bearish disposition. Over the past two years, he’s been one of the key voices warning that the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate hikes will ultimately spark a U.S. recession. Even after the latest GDP estimate for the third quarter came in red-hot this week, Edwards remained cautious.

He believes that America’s small businesses are struggling with the rising cost of borrowing and persistent inflation and their problems will eventually come to the surface. And rising small-business bankruptcies will ultimately be the final nail in the coffin of the U.S. economy after years of headwinds and recession predictions. “The vast majority of economists are stampeding away from their recession calls,” he wrote in a Thursday note. “The notion that we are at the start of a new economic cycle seems preposterous to me.” Edwards laid out his reasoning, particularly emphasizing the role of the “Seven Fed Horsemen of the Apocalypse,” comparing the interest-rate hikes from Jerome Powell and his six fellow Federal Reserve board members to the New Testament’s destruction myth.

“You only need to turn your gaze to the smaller listed and unlisted companies to witness the torture being inflicted by the Fed’s interest rate garroting,” he wrote. 

The small-business recession that everyone is missing....

....MUCH MORE

Previously from the hot boy band Albert and the Four Horsemen:

Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him"
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