Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Comparing Estimates Of Growth In The Quarter Just Ended

From EconBrowser, October 10:

Nowcasts Compared

NY Fed, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed, and IHS Markit released nowcasts today.

Figure 1: GDP in bn. Ch.2012$ SAAR (black), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (blue), NY Fed nowcast (blue), St. Louis Fed nowcast (chartreuse), IHS Markit nowcast (red), Bloomberg consensus. Source: BEA 2020Q2 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, IHS Markit, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.


Recently (Sept. 23)

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasting 3rd Quarter Growth at 32.0% (annualized) New York at 14.3%

I do not know why they use an annualized number in situations that may be (is) a one-off but they all do, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Moody's, Markit etc.
So we shall as well.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:
...Latest estimate: 32.0 percent — September 17, 2020
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 17, up from 31.7 percent on September 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 39.3 percent to 46.1 percent. ...

Atlanta almost always runs hotter than New York's Nowcast, they converge after the end of the quarter into the flash estimate.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:....MORE

The EconBrowser link also has a nice chart of how the Atlanta and New York Fed estimates come together, a point we've been trying to make for years and which he does effortlessly in one graphic.