Friday, May 10, 2019

SCMP: "Has Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ met its match in Xi Jinping’s long game? FBI’s former crisis negotiator breaks it down"

From the South China Morning Post, May 9:

Former FBI crisis negotiator says he is not convinced Trump has ‘appreciation for the strategic instruments that successful international relations require’
US President Donald Trump lacks the negotiating talent needed to resolve the US-China trade war in America’s favour, according to James Chip Massey, a former crisis negotiator at the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), who now advises CEOs on business negotiations.

Massey, who spent weeks of intensive training to join the FBI’s crisis negotiations team and once worked on espionage cases, told the South China Morning Post that he holds little hope for Trump, given the president’s famed inattention to detail and disdain for intelligence gathering.
Massey pointedly disagreed with Trump’s assessment of Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “world class poker player”.

“Xi is a world-class chess player,” Massey said, who has been a featured speaker at the Carnegie New Leaders programme, the US Military Academy at West Point, and to law enforcement and business organisations around the US.

“He is well-versed in strategy and [can read] the mind of his opponent. And he is patient. From what I’ve seen so far, I’m not convinced that President Trump has an equivalent amount of discipline or patience, or an appreciation for the strategic instruments that successful international relations require.
Massey said that Trump relies on the force of his personality to achieve his aims.
“He appears to be motivated by the short game – quick surface wins that give the impression of progress.”
Trump sent shock waves through global markets on Sunday when he tweeted that the 10 per cent that had been levied on US$200 billion of goods made in China would increase to 25 per cent from Friday.

The news roiled trade talks that seemed to have calmed down and blunted stock market gains. Mainland Chinese equities have lost almost US$1 trillion in market capitalisation since their high in April, according to Bloomberg data.
White House officials are reportedly divided on Trump’s tactics and have openly argued in front of Chinese trade delegations.
Massey also lauded Xi’s intelligence gathering capabilities. “President Xi is playing the long game … he is intent on strengthening an already powerful and hugely effective intelligence apparatus. In 2018, the country spent more than US$8 billion in 68 countries to increase its influence and hamper US efforts.”...MORE
Be that as it may be, at the moment the U.S. has the stronger hand and should maybe just walk. 
If interested see also: 
"Xi Jinping Wanted Global Dominance. He Overshot"
China Will Not Intervene Or Supply Aid Should Texas Decide To Secede
"China Wants a New World Order. At the U.N, NGOs Are Secretly Paid Cash to Promote Beijing’s Vision"  
China Has Some Serious Problems So Do We Bet Against It Now? 
Sovereignty: "All under Heaven, China’s challenge to the Westphalian system"

Not to take anything away from Xi's accomplishments but Xi is not Deng, or even Hu.
SCMP: "Xi Jinping’s China is ignoring the role the US, and others, played in its rise to economic glory"
The writer of this piece, Chi Wang, is a former head of the Chinese section of the US Library of Congress and is president of the US-China Policy Foundation
In 1980 China's GDP per capita was $312.
In 2017 China's GDP per capita was $8,836 with purchasing power parity being $17,015.
The world has never seen anything like it....