Tuesday, August 8, 2023

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Collapses, Plunging Europe Into An Ice Age: WHAT IS YOUR TRADING RESPONSE?

Your financial counsel should be able to immediately answer this query upon being awakened from the deepest delta-wave slumber at 3:30 in the AM. Try it tomorrow. Go to his/her/ze/zir's house and scream the question.

If he/she/ze/zir can't return the correct response the charlatan should be subjected to an unmerciful dressing-down. Or worse.

You've probably seen the headlines:

WaPo, July 25: "Scientists detect sign that a crucial ocean current is near collapse"

CNN, July 26: "A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that ‘would affect every person on the planet’"

The Guardian, July 25: "Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests"

The Guardian, 2021: "Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream Collapse"

The Guardian, 2018: "Gulf Stream current at its weakest in 1,600 years, studies show"

 First off, the physical process in question is the AMOC not the Gulf Stream, though they are connected, as is everything in this universe.

And as you contemplate the horrors of crossing a global warming tipping point, don't despair. 
There's a trade for that:

Natural Gas Base


Slope of Hope

You don't think Warren Buffet owns all those gas pipelines and producing properties just because he has $147 billion, cash, burning a hole in his pocket, do you? 

In the meantime, here's the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, AR5, Working Group 1, The Scientific Basis, pp. 40 (of 1552):

 It is very likely that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken over the 21st century. Best estimates and ranges for the reduction are 11% (1 to 24%) in RCP2.6 and 34% (12 to 54%) in RCP8.5. It is likely that there will be some decline in the AMOC by about 2050, but there may be some decades when the AMOC increases due to large natural internal variability. {11.3, 12.4}

It is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo an abrupt transition or collapse in the 21st century for the scenarios considered. There is low confidence in assessing the evolution of the AMOC beyond the 21st century because of the limited number of analyses and equivocal results. However, a collapse beyond the 21st century for large sustained warming cannot be excluded. {12.5}

And 185 more hits on a Ctrl+F.

So consider buying some natural gas for a two to five year investment, it looks like a Pascal's Wager.

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