From the World Economic Forum:
To understand events in the international arena, it helps to
distinguish whether our current period is essentially stable or in
significant flux. In an article written a quarter of a century ago,
during another time of rapid and relentless change, my co-author and I
described the former type of period as a plateau phase, and the latter
as one of historical transition.
A series of recent developments suggests that the domestic
political situations of several key players in the international arena
are undergoing significant shifts, as are relations between players.
Everything seems to indicate that the world is in another period of
historical transition.
A shortlist of the developments that point in this direction
include: the breakdown of the political centre in several advanced
democracies; centrifugal tendencies in the long-prevailing regional and
international structures, of which the Brexit vote is one example; the
accentuation of authoritarianism in Russia and China; and last, but
certainly not least, the collapse of American moral leadership.
Against this backdrop, how might we expect strategic relations to
evolve in the next 20 years? In the short to mid-term, the key issue is
the relationship between those powers that have been largely responsible
for creating the post-WWII order, and those that are challenging it, in
an effort to erect a new paradigm calling that order into question. In
which direction this relationship is moving should become clear within
the next five to ten years, and perhaps much sooner. There are
essentially three possible outcomes.
One is that the current Western-dominated paradigm manages to
overcome its current weaknesses and disunity, creating space for and
movement towards a renewed democratic revolution. In the process, it
forges an environment in which the challenging powers can be
successfully encouraged to integrate. Call this 'liberal
internationalism renewed' - a revamped version of the paradigm that has
prevailed since the end of the Second World War.
A second possible outcome has the challengers to the Western-led
paradigm - primarily, but not exclusively, Russia and China - succeed in
taking advantage of its contradictions, to more or less peacefully
establish the basis for the multi-polar world for which they have long
been militating. Call this '21st-century concert', after the
19th-century Concert of Nations.
A third possible outcome resembles the second, but with one crucial
difference. The rise of the multi-polarists turns violent,
characterized by spiraling patterns of conflict that encompass ever more
regions of the world. The resulting situation is similar to the
strategic free-for-all that prevailed as the Concert of Nations was
weakened, and ultimately condemned, by inter-state conflict rising to
critical levels. Call this 'geostrategic meltdown', a new period of
global conflict.
As for the factors driving these developments, there are five key ones....
...
MUCH MORE
