Monday, April 16, 2018

"Gartner thinks the Facebook data panic will subside as people start to realise the value of their information" (FB)

That was also the point of the introduction to April 11's "A Deep Dive Into Amazon's Valuation (AMZN)":
The question that keeps coming to mind is: "Will the 'techlash' crimp the reach of the platform companies?"
Even for Facebook it's an open question whether all the hubbub isn't just Macbeth's comment on life itself, writ small: "full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing."...
It is just so dangerous to put a short on something like this in anticipation of some sort of regulation and although the stock is down from the Feb.1 all-time high ($195.32 )—the Cambridge Analytica news came out six weeks after the decline began—the proposed policy responses to the publicity surrounding Facebook's business model would have the effect of entrenching Facebook and shutting the door on any wannabe competitors.

FB Facebook, Inc. daily Stock Chart
In a bull market it is better to search for frauds to short or at minimum unprofitable companies (but beware the volatility a P/E of  can experience). If you can find an unprofitable fraud, well there you go.
In the meantime, think about why Zuckerberg was so quick to agree to regulation during his Congressional testimony.

From The Register:

AI can't help without your data, says Gartner, so share, share, share!
Uber, have my calendar. And would you at least think about paying for it?
Gartner thinks the Facebook data panic will subside as people start to realise the value of their information.

Predicting an eventual upturn in the sagging smartphone market, research director Ranjit Atwal told The Reg that while artificial intelligence has proven key to making phones more useful by removing friction from transactions, AI required more permissive use of data to deliver. An example he cited was Uber "knowing" from your calendar that you needed a lift from the airport.

"Today there are no good use cases for AI - it's just an enhancement of what we do on a phone. We're thinking ahead a few years, when AI can start to remove friction between us and the phone." This can be done by automating mundane tasks - such as ordering an Uber - but that will require users to share data with services they trust.

Another example Atwal cited was renewing house and car insurance.
"If you haven't changed your car insurance there should be easier and more effective ways of doing that. But that only happens if you share your data."

That seems a tall order today. Since news broke that Cambridge Analytica used Facebook data it should not have been able to access, Facebook has been criticized for its permissive data sharing. And not just Facebook. Gay hookup service Grindr was found to be sharing medical information - including their HIV status - with third parties.

"People will start to use data as a currency," Atwal predicts.

"Take out the repetition. A lot of AI is about that - portrayed as ... all about removing friction. Installing automation - taking out redundancies - then the middle ground is data and analysis and more effective service. People are trying to rush through the service part without doing both ends of the equation."...MORE