There will be "almost no prospective returns" from U.S. stocks over the next decade because the market is fully valued following years of gains, according to the global strategist at Allianz Global Investors, which manages $569 billion.MORE
As Bloomberg reports, low interest rates and bond purchases by central banks have left cash and many other asset classes "significantly mispriced," Neil Dwane said Monday as part of a panel discussion on long-term investing at the Toronto Global Forum.
"The U.S. is fully valued," said Dwane, whose firm is owned by Munich-based insurance giant Allianz SE.Dwane is not alone of course in this ominous view, as Bloomberg notes, Jim Keohane, chief executive officer of the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, agreed that it’s not a good time to be buying assets of nearly any stripe.
"There’s almost no prospective returns for the next 10 years from the U.S. equity market, and therefore investors have to look into Asia or Europe where valuations are significantly lower."
With interest rates close to zero around the world and bond markets "manipulated by central banks," it’s difficult to assess risk and return, he added.
Many investors have turned to high-yield bonds or emerging markets for income, which raises risks.
"Right now assets are very expensive," said Keohane, whose firm manages more than C$70 billion ($54 billion).And finally, John Hussman, of Hussman Funds, warned that a century of reliable valuation evidence indicates that the S&P 500 is likely to experience an outright loss, including dividends, over the coming 10-12 year horizon, and we presently estimate likely interim losses on the order of -60% or more....
"We need to be patient, to wait for better opportunities. Whenever the next crisis comes, assets are going to be on sale. You can buy them a lot cheaper than you can buy them today, but you have to have patience to be able to do that."