Thursday, November 2, 2017

Goldman Throws Up On Tesla Earnings: Reiterates Sell, Cuts Price Target To 205 [36% downside] As Stock Tumbles (TSLA)

The stock is down  $22.55 (-7.02%) at $298.53.

TSLA Tesla, Inc. daily Stock Chart
From ZeroHedge:
One day after Tesla announced its worst quarter in history, in which it burned a record $1.4 billion in cash..
... Goldman has guaranteed it will not be an underwriter on the next Tesla stock offering - which at the current cash burn will take place in less than 2 quarter - by reiterating its Sell rating on Tesla, and cutting its Price Target to $205, or 36% downside. Here is the summary from Goldman's David Tamberrino who once again unapologetically throws up all over the latest TSLA earnings:
We reiterate our Sell rating on shares of TSLA. We believe the stock should continue to de-rate following 3Q17 results where the company further pushed out its Model 3 production targets for 5k/week to late 1Q18. We believe this further pushes out the potential to ramp to 10k/week production of the Model 3 to at least 2019 (though we continue to model a ramp well below both); this should weigh on gross margins through at least 1Q18 and we do not expect a return to above 20% Automotive gross margin levels until 2H18. Altogether, we believe this indicates that the company’s goal for positive OCF generation should remain elusive until the middle of 2018 — though we still forecast significant FCF burn. On that front, we now believe TSLA will need to raise capital sooner (2Q18 vs. 3Q18 previously). Lastly, we believe the company’s comments on potential China production (3 years out) will be disappointing to investors, which have been confident in TSLA entering the China market with local production in the next one to two years. Our 6-month price target declines to $205, showing 36% downside.
And some more details:
3Q17 results weaker than expected, Model 3 production targets pushed out

TSLA reported a weaker than expected quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $22mn vs. GSe of $145mn and FactSet consensus of $175mn. Overall, higher operating expenses than expected drove the miss. More importantly, the company pushed out expectations for its 5k/week production target for the Model 3. Altogether, we lower our estimates and believe that Street consensus figures similarly need to be tempered given lower gross margin guidance and a pushed out cadence to Model 3 production.

Key points — to the negative:
  • Model 3 production target for 5k/week has been pushed out to late 1Q18: Previously the company had targeted late 4Q17, and appeared about one month behind in October when it announced 3Q17 deliveries. However, due to battery pack module issues, this ramp appears pushed out further to the end of 1Q18. That said, the company believes it can exit 4Q17 above 1k/week in production (with comments suggesting potential to be in the 1,000s per week production range).
  • 10k/week Model 3 production now looks pushed to 2019: While this is very much undetermined – as the company needs to get to 5k/week before it can determine where to add capital in order to speed up or duplicate its lines, we believe the company has softly pushed its 10k/week production target into 2019 from “at some point in 2018” previously.
  • New product cadence could be pushed out: The company has previously communicated that new product development costs are largely contingent upon internal cash generation from the Model 3. Future product launches include (1) the Tesla Semi (reveal date of 11/16), (2) the Model Y –a crossover based on the Model 3 platform, (3) a pickup truck, and (4) the second generation roadster. We see the timeline for these products as likely pushed out as (1) the Model 3 remains a drag on cash flow generation from a slower ramp, and (2) the company allocates resources on ramping Model 3 production.....