Tuesday, September 12, 2017

WASDE: "Corn leads grain markets lower, after surprise US yield upgrades"

Last Chg
Corn 348-2-9-2
Soybeans 945-6-14-2
Wheat 436-4+1-6

From Agrimoney:
Soybean and, especially, corn futures tumbled, although wheat prices revived, after the US surprised traders by raising its yield forecasts for both row crops, while cutting hopes for values farmers can expect.

Soybean futures for November, which had stood only marginally lower ahead of the US Department of Agriculture estimate revisions, tumbled 2.3% in the aftermath, to $9.37 ½ a bushel.
Wasde 2017-18 corn data, change on previous, and (on market forecast)
US yield: 169.9 bushels per acre, +0.4 bpa, (+1.7 bpa)
US production: 14.184bn bushels, +31m bushels, (+149m bushels)
US carryout stocks: 2.335bn bushels, +62m bushels, (+155m bushels)
World carryout stocks: 202.47m tonnes, +1.60m tonnes, (+1.73m tonnes)
Sources: USDA, Agrimoney.com, Reuters

The drop reflected an upgrade in the USDA's forecast for the domestic soybean yield this year of 0.5 bushels per acre to 49.9 bushels per acre, rather than the 0.6 bushels-per-acre downgrade that investors had expected.

'Rains aided crops'

The USDA, while noting "pockets of Midwestern dryness", which had left "some late-developing summer crops in need of rain", flagged that "in portions of the Dakotas and environs, August rain aided previously drought-stressed crops such as corn and soybeans".

The soy harvest upgrade left the US on course for a record 4.38bn-bushel harvest.
The USDA also raised estimates for US soybean exports, reflecting improved expectations for China's imports for both 2016-17 and 2017-18  - upgraded by 1.0m tonnes to 92.0m tonnes and 95.0m tonnes respectively.
However, the improved production hopes dashed investor expectations of a cut to the estimate for US soybean stocks, a particularly important pricing metric.
Hit to ethanol exports
Corn futures for December plunged more than 3% to within 1.25 cents of a contract low after the USDA issued a double boost to inventory hopes....MORE