Hurricane Irma: The HRWF Model Run—This is Just Awful

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model is just one of the many models of hurricanes available to the wonks and at five days resolution they can all be off by 100 miles but if this is anywhere close to representing the actual storm track there are going to be people killed by the dozens or hundreds as Irma rides up the islands.

One feature to note: The dip toward Cuba is a counter-intuitive action - toward a larger land mass - that is actually fairly common and for Miami very fortunate.
A straight run through the Florida Strait without the attraction of Cuba would result in that sharp northward turn occurring earlier and thus directing U.S. landfall further east. Very fortunate.

Not so for Cuba itself. Or the Keys, on up to Naples but the re-insurers are thinking "Anywhere but Miami, anywhere."

From Dr. Maue at WeatherBELL:

HWRF hurricane model latest simulation of wind speed near the surface with Hurricane #Irma showing next 5-days as storm rolls toward Florida pic.twitter.com/nSgTi64wZA

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 6, 2017