Thursday, December 1, 2016

"Nvidia Down 6% Post-Amazon AWS Show; Global Equities Sees GPU Payoff" (NVDA)

As noted in our last post on NVIDIA (it's been 10 days, possibly a record):
...I'm not saying Graphcore is the disruptor, just that it will be something like this. We'll be back with more next week but in the meantime the immediate threat is a bunch of fund managers looking for a bonus wanting to lock in the 280%+ that the stock has made this year and the public exhibiting the round number effect we mentioned back in 2007 as First Solar was on its way from $20 to $317:...
The folks holding NVIDIA right now have nervous hands after this year's very dramatic run and have multiple reasons to sell, all of which can be rationalized with any number of ex post reasons.
This is a dangerous time for the stock. $87.30 down $4.90 (-5.31%).

NVDA NVIDIA Corporation daily Stock Chart
From Barron's Tech Trader Daily:
Shares of graphics chip titan Nvidia (NVDA) are down $5.40, or almost 6%, at $86.80, which speculates is about negative sentiment following‘s (AMZN) conference in Las Vegas yesterday for its AWS cloud computing service, which suggested some competing chip use versus Nvidia’s GPUs, which have become more and more popular in cloud computing.

Amazon mentioned FPGAs for its cloud computing services, such as “machine learning,” which could tend to suggest there might be less reliance on Nvidia’s graphics chips. Amazon like many other firms has made extensive use of GPUs in cloud.

But in a note from Global Equities Research’s Trip Chowdhry today, reviewing day two of Amazon’s conference, Chowdhry actually trumpets the many ways in which Nvidia “wins” regardless of how Amazon’s services are architected:
WHO IS THE WINNER: Nvidia – NVDA wins irrespective of which framework wins All the above frameworks – Watson, CNTK, TensorFlow, Torch, MXNet are optimized for NVDA GPU’s using NVDA CUDA libraries...
Here are the rest of our November posts, for the prior year-and-a-half use the 'search blog' box if interested:

"The Fuzzy Future of Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality" (NVDA; FB)
NVIDIA Builds Its Very Own Supercomputer, Enters The Top500 List At #28 (NVDA)
NVIDIA: Don't Buy the Stock For The Autonomous Car Stuff (or virtual reality) NVDA; TSLA; IBM
"Nvidia Drops 4% Even as Needham Ups to Buy" (NVDA)
The stock closed down almost 5% at $83.64 -4.33 (-4.92%). After Friday's 30% upmove we were bracing for as much as a 10% drop out of the chute. For folks new to this type of investing, high-tech at high multiples, the swings can be almost terrifying, especially now that it is not 'undiscovered'.
C'est la vie, c'est la guerre, c'est la pomme de terre.  
A Brief Interview With NVIDIA's CEO and Analysts React (NVDA)
NVIDIA: Jeffries, RBC Capital Markets; MKM Raise Price Targets, Stock Soars 22% (NVDA)
NVIDIA Beats On Top Line; Beats On Bottom Line; Raises Guidance, Stock Jumps 13% (NVDA)
NVIDIA: Ahead of Today's Earnings Report There Sure Is A Lot Of Happy Talk (NVDA)
Attentive reader may have noticed we haven't posted on the company in the run-up to today's numbers. Instead we end up in the very unfamiliar role of prude saying stuff such as this from October 25:
We continue to bet on one of the class acts of Silicon valley but investors have to know what  they have here and unless they are willing to ride a 20% down move to get to greater glory profits they should maybe go buy some T-bills...
And that's where we're at