Monday, September 12, 2016

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report: Soybeans Get Hammered, Wheat Up, Corn Meh

Last Chg
Corn 339-4-1-4
Soybeans 963-6-16-4
Wheat 407-6+4-2
Agrimoney quotes

From Inside Futures:
WHEAT: The U.S. 2016/17 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The marketing year average price received by producers is lowered $0.10 per bushel at the midpoint to a range of $3.30 to $3.90. The reduction is due to lower than expected prices to date.

Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 0.4 million tons on a 1.4-million-ton production increase that is partially offset by decreased beginning stocks. Production increases for India, Kazakhstan, Australia, Brazil, and Canada are partially offset by reductions for the EU and China. Most changes are attributable to harvest reports and government data. The Australia increase is based on continued excellent growing conditions thus far in the growing season, with yields projected to be nearly record high. Brazil is also experiencing favorable growing conditions with yields projected record high. Global exports are raised 2.1 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Kazakhstan, both on larger crops. Export gains are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton decrease in EU exports on the continued decline in supplies. Total global use is up 4.2 million tons with increases in both food and feed use. With total use rising faster than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 3.8 million tons but remain record large.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, lower stocks, and higher prices. Corn production is forecast at 15.093 billion bushels, down 61 million from last month. Corn supplies for 2016/17 are lowered from last month but are still forecast at a record 16.859 billion bushels, as a smaller crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks due to a reduction in 2015/16 exports. Feed and residual use for 2016/17 is lowered 25 million bushels with a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are unchanged from last month, reflecting the competitiveness of U.S. corn on the world market. Corn ending stocks are down from last month but, if realized, would still be the highest since 1987/88. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $2.90 to $3.50 per bushel. Sorghum production for 2016/17 is forecast 14 million bushels above last month on higher yields. Grain sorghum prices are projected to average $2.75 to $3.35 per bushel, raised 5 cents on each end from last month....MUCH MORE