Monday, September 12, 2016

Ahead of Today's Report: "AM markets: grain, cotton futures slip as Wasde looms"

Last Chg
Corn 340-2-0-6
Soybeans 975-6-4-4
Wheat 402-0-1-4

From Agrimoney:
That's more like it.
That is, corn and soybean futures headed lower in early deals, as is more typical at this time of year, with the US harvest hotting up, bringing with it a jump in supplies and allowing the removal from prices of the last vestiges of risk premium.
"The seasonal tendencies are for lower prices during September," said Water Street Solutions.
And Chicago corn futures obliged by dropping 0.4% to $3.39 ¾ a bushel for December delivery as of 09:30 UK time (03:30 Chicago time).
'Outlook is drier'
Weather factors played to bears' hands too, with worries over wetness in the Midwest, which would slow harvesters and potentially threaten crop condition, easing a touch.
Sure, for this week, "expected rains in central and western [Midwest] areas will increase wetness concerns for corns and soybeans", MDA said.
However, in the six-to-10 day timeframe, the "outlook is drier in western and central crop areas and warmer in eastern areas versus Friday's outlook", the weather service said.
"Drier weather in the central and western Midwest and Delta would ease wetness and improve corn drydown."
And in Canada too, "drier weather in the Prairies will support wheat drydown and harvesting. The same is true in the Northern Plains".
Wasde ahead
All that said, losses for the session are nowhere near a dead cert, with the day to bring a monthly US Department of Agriculture Wasde report on world crop supply and demand – briefings which are highpoints of the agricultural commodities calendar.
And particularly this time, when there is some debate raging over the US corn yield, and whether it will achieve the record 175.1 bushels per acre that the USDA pencilled in last month.
Most analysts see that figure being downgraded later, although some see scope for an upgrade, with an upper forecast for the Wasde result of 175.6 bushels per acre, from INTL FCStone...

We'll be back after the report.