The robust US jobs report at the end of last week had arrested the down draft seen the previous week in response to the disappointing Q2 GDP report. The mostly sideways movement has given way to a broader pullback today. The greenback is heavier against all the major and most emerging market currencies today.
There does not appear to be a fundamental driver, which does not mean that the dollar's losses cannot be extended. The US economic calendar is light with mortgage applications, the JOLTS report on job openings, and the monthly federal budget, which do not have the heft to change trends. It is true that the probability of a Fed hike in September has eased to 24% from 26% at the end of last week, but for all practical purposes, it is a difference without significance.
If there is an overarching theme, it is that rates will be lower for longer, globally. This may be underwriting risk taking, though equity markets are mixed. Still, the MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up 0.4%,m extending its streak to the fifth consecutive session. It is at its best level since July 2015. Although the Japanese and Chinese markets slipped lower earlier today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also extended its advance. Since July 22, the index has only been down in two sessions.
European bourses are mixed, and this is leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 practically unchanged in late-European morning turnover. Financials are the strongest sector (+0.4%), and within it, the insurance sector is leading with a 0.8% advance and banks are up 0.4%. The FTSE's Italian bank index is up 1.4% to extend its recovery into a fifth session. ...MUCH MORE