Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Wheat Futures Hit Six-year Low

We don't have a lot cooking in the grains, so to speak, at the moment although I've touched on our expectations* a couple times, most recently last week:
We're looking for down then some serious weather related up.
From Agrimoney:

PM markets: wheat hits six-year low, sugar soars
Wheat futures plunged to a six-year low on Tuesday, in the face of heavy global supplies.
The front-month contract, which expires at the end of this week, hit its lowest level since 2010. 

"There's just a lot of wheat in the wold," Don Roose, of US Commodities".

"The US just isn't competitive," he said, adding that markets were also waiting for US acreages and demand data, which will be released this week. 

Focus on acreages
"Our markets are definitely focused on the USDA Outlook Conference later this," said Tregg Cronin, of Halo Commodities.

And Mr Cronin noted that analysts "are already taking issue," with what they think will be an underestimate. 

The USDA has already pegged the US' eight crop planted area 1.9m acres down from last year, "despite the heavy prevent plant acres in Missouri, Nebraska and Illinois".
Mr Cronin added that there were still additional acres to be allocated from the sharp drop in winter wheat plantings last autumn, "which could see additional acreage added to corn, beans and spring wheat". 

Farmer selling
Mr Roose also noted that grain rallies were triggering farmer selling in the US.
As to why the turnaround is happening today, Mr Roose said "I think it's Tuesday," referring to an idea that markets often shift direction on Tuesdays. 

And indeed, outside markets turned hostile, after Monday's supportive tone, with global equities and oil prices down. 

Short-covering failure
And at Country Futures, Darrell Holaday noted the apparent failure of a recent short-covering rally in grains, as fund shrink their net-short position in grains. 

"There is little doubt that has happened the last ten days,"... 

*See also Feb. 12's "La Niña expected in next months for the first time since 2012":
To paraphrase Chris Farley, 'for those who don't habla Español, La Niña is Spanish for..ah..the niña.'
I mentioned on Tuesday "We are expecting to have a lousy weather-thank you La Niña long trade later this year..." Here's more.
And Feb. 9's "There's So Much Stuff, Everywhere: 'Grain prices dip, after US hikes record world wheat stocks estimate'".