"Could the shale oil boom be ending? It all depends on oil prices"

Some of these wells require $50 oil to be economic, some require $110.
Brent $88.38 down $1.83; Nov. WTI $84.72 down $1.10.
First up, from Reuters:
EXCLUSIVE-Privately, Saudis tell oil market: get used to lower prices

Saudi Arabia is quietly telling oil market participants that Riyadh is comfortable with markedly lower oil prices for an extended period, a sharp shift in policy that may be aimed at slowing the expansion of rival producers including those in the U.S. shale patch.

Some OPEC members including Venezuela are clamoring for urgent production cuts to push global oil prices back up above $100 a barrel. But Saudi officials have telegraphed a different message in private meetings with oil market investors and analysts recently: the kingdom, OPEC's largest producer, is ready to accept oil prices below $90 per barrel, and perhaps down to $80, for as long as a year or two, according to people who have been briefed on the recent conversations.

The discussions, some of which took place in New York over the past week, offer the clearest sign yet that the kingdom is setting aside its longstanding de facto strategy of holding prices at around $100 a barrel for Brent crude in favor of retaining market share in years to come.

The Saudis now appear to be betting that a period of lower prices - which could strain the finances of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - will be necessary to pave the way for higher revenue in the medium term, by curbing new investment and further increases in supply from places like the U.S. shale patch or ultra-deepwater, according to the sources, who declined to be identified due to the private nature of the discussions....MORE

And from Fortune, the headline story:

As oil prices keep falling, some are suggesting that shale oil producers may start rethinking their expansion plans for 2015 and even cutting back on the numbers of rigs they deploy.

With oil prices falling and energy stocks getting battered, the days of the shale boom might be numbered.
Most analysts predict that companies will stay the course for the short-term as prices of West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, briefly dipped below $85 Friday before recovering to $86. In June, a comparable barrel cost as much as $105.

But if oil prices fall below $85 and remain there for several months, analysts predicted companies would start taking a hard look at next year’s drilling plans. Should they fall below $80, then mid-sized and small producers may cut back their spending and suspend some of their operations.

“If it falls below $80, the companies start having the conversation of slowing down their drilling activity,” said Daniel Katzenberg, an analyst with Robert W. Baird. “It would have to be there for several months for them to actually follow through and reduce drilling plans.”

David Pursell, managing director at advisor Tudor Pickering. Holt & Co. concurred that $80 is a point when U.S. oil industry may start reassessing its shale production. It would unlikely have any impact on the big oil companies like ExxonMobil XOM -0.24% because most of their projects are planned far in advance....MORE

HT: The Million Dollar Way who has been blogging the Bakken for long enough to have learned a thing or two about the shale players:

...I'm not worried about Saudi flooding the market to cripple the North American energy revolution; Saudi may flood the market but it won't be for that reason. But I don't think they will flood the market in the first place.

When we get into these discussions, one might find it useful to:

• look at the price of WTI over the years (be careful; the link may take a long time to load);
• recall that the Montana Bakken boom began in 2000;
• recall that the North Dakota Bakken boom began in 2007;
• recall the number of active rigs over the years;
• recall that current rigs are significantly better than earlier rigs;
• recall that completion techniques are incredibly different than when the boom started
• note that cost of wells have remained fairly constant throughout the boom when comparing apples to apples and oranges to oranges;
• transportation costs have an impact and are negotiable; 
• North Dakota's new flaring rules are in effect;

...MORE