Natural Gas Storage Injections Come in Light, Futures Jump

Front futures $4.4860, up 11.9 cents.
We were so confident we put it in Monday's headline: "Natural Gas: Lovely Weather Sets Up First 100Bcf Injection of the Season". The linked story went on to say:

...However, with one full month now complete, the pace of injections must rise quickly before summer heat increases demand. The weekly injections have yet to meet or exceed the 5 year weekly maximum. If injections match the 5 year maximum, 2,415 bcf will added to storage facilities and lift inventories to 3,470 bcf. This week needs to equal a 99 bcf injection to match the 5 year maximum. Injections must equal 129% of the 5 year average to reach 3,400 bcf by early November and for this week must equal 108 bcf....MORE

From the Wall Street Journal:

Natural-gas futures rose for the first time in a week, gaining more than 2% after an increase in U.S. stockpiles of the fuel failed to meet expectations. 

Producers added 97 billion cubic feet of gas to storage for the week ended May 9, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. That is 2 bcf less than what 16 traders, brokers and analysts forecasted in a Wall Street Journal survey. It is also about 20% short of the target that additions need to hit to boost stockpiles from an 11-year low in time to meet increased winter demand for heat and power.

The possibility of a winter shortage previously pushed up prices this spring and it did again Thursday. Natural gas for June delivery recently jumped 12.8 cents, or 2.9%, to $4.494 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It is the first significant price rise in more than a week and pulled natural gas off the six-week low it had touched earlier Thursday.

"You're going to have to take that and run with it," said John Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex floor trader. "There's nothing else out there that can move this market other than (these) weekly stats."

The weekly EIA update has played a critical role this spring. It's used as a measure for how quickly the country is rebuilding its stockpile after a frigid winter. Last week's addition left stockpiles lingering below 1.2 trillion cubic feet, about 45.5% lower than the five-year average....MORE

An average summer cooling season could set the stage for natgas rationing if the incoming El Nino doesn't moderate winter temps. Here's the week's action from FinViz: