Based on our initial look at heating/cooling degree days for the week ending May 9 the EIA will be reporting the first 100+Bcf injection on Thursday.
From RBN Energy:
Supply/demand balance appears to loosen as temperatures across the county moderate
Highlights of the Natural Gas Summary and Outlook for May 9 2014 follow. The full report is available at the link below.
Natural Gas Summary and Outlook
- Price Action: Prices slipped 14.3 cents (3.1%) to $4.531 on a 32.9 cent range.
- Price Outlook: Prices did end the string higher and true to form, established a new low instead. Considering recent price action and projected large injections in the coming weeks, another new low is expected next week. This would require a print of just $4.497. The CFTC data for May 6 revealed a continued slide in the managed money net long position. Total open interest was slightly higher and thus the position on a percentage basis experienced an even more dramatic drop. Total open interest rose to 4.06 million contracts. CME futures open interest was down to just 1.05 million contracts as of May 8. This is the lowest open interest since January 5, 2012.
- Weekly Storage: US working gas storage for the week ending May 2 indicated a build of 74 bcf. Current inventories of 1,055 bcf fall 810 bcf (43.4%) below last year and 972 bcf (47.9%) behind the 5 year average.
- Storage Outlook: The yearly storage deficit actually expanded this week while it was barely reduced compared to the 5 year average. The supply/demand balance is appearing to loosen as temperatures across the county moderate and US production grows. However, with one full month now complete, the pace of injections must rise quickly before summer heat increases demand. The weekly injections have yet to meet or exceed the 5 year weekly maximum. If injections match the 5 year maximum, 2,415 bcf will added to storage facilities and lift inventories to 3,470 bcf. This week needs to equal a 99 bcf injection to match the 5 year maximum. Injections must equal 129% of the 5 year average to reach 3,400 bcf by early November and for this week must equal 108 bcf....MORE
