Wednesday, June 26, 2013

UPDATED--"Charts Suggest Gold Will Bounce" (GLD)

Update below.
Original post:
I'm probably being too cute by half posting this. Markets, like cars, don't repair themselves and gold is in a bear market but between this link and the action on the 5-minute chart below this is a reasonable place to bet.

Front futures $1226, GLD closed at $128.28 down $5.19, early after-hours $118.67 up 39 cents.
Today's low in the futures was $1221 and a break below that means going back to July 2010 for any support on the chart, in this case $1190 or so.
From Barron's:
...But even with Wednesday's latest decline, sentiment remains at extreme bearish levels, according to the Daily Sentiment Index survey of traders compiled by veteran trader Jake Bernstein at trade-futures.com.
And now the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD) is closing in on the downside target I mentioned in last week's column at 118 (it traded at 119 Wednesday afternoon). This target was based on the height of the April-June triangle pattern projected down from last week's breakdown point.

Making this an even more compelling target is that it is also the target for the break of the much larger triangle pattern formed between July 2011 and April 2013 (see Chart 2).
Chart 2 SPDR Gold Trust
[image]

Because the percentage changes involved in long-term patterns can be large, I used a chart with log scaling, which is similar to percentage-change scaling. The height of the pattern projected down from the breakdown point in percentage terms is also in the 118 area....MORE
Here's the micro view:
 

Update: Gold Breaks Under $1200