Monday, October 15, 2012

Pray for Doug Kass: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Moves Over Trend Line (TBT; TLT)

We've looked at Mr. Kass' short Treasuries thesis in "Doug Kass and the WORST Trade of the Decade" and in 'Money Management: Doug Kass Pounds the Table on His Leveraged Short Treasuries Trade (TLT; TBT)". It has been brutal. and to answer a reader's question, no TBT didn't quadruple, it was a 4:1 reverse split.
Now, the long Treasury ETF TLT (TBT is double short) is perking up again.
From Market Montage, Oct. 12:
While this market is subject to a strong dead cat bounce at any moment there continues to be degradation under the surface.  Just about all the leadership areas of the past month have been hit on a rotational basis.  Hence any trend following strategy is now going to be rather useless as relative strength no longer offers assurances of sustained moves up.  I mentioned the bond market yesterday and the well followed iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF has this morning broken over the trend line of highs of the past few months.  This of course can reverse at any moment but for now it's another cautionary indicator.


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At least Mr. K got his Apple short on.