Monday, October 1, 2012

Money Management: Doug Kass Pounds the Table on His Leveraged Short Treasuries Trade (TLT; TBT)

The long bond ETF, TLT is up a few cents at $124 even.
The double short TBT is off a few cent at $15.55. Compare with chart below.

Most everyone who pays attention to this stuff know that some day treasuries will mean-revert and trade lower.
What most everyone isn't doing is publicly recommending the trade and using double leveraged inverse ETF's to do it.
There's a lesson in here somewhere.

From Clusterstock:
Treasury yields are near all-time lows, and the Federal Reserve continues to reiterate its commitment to keep rates low for a long time.

However, Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners remains convinced that rates will soon rise, which means bond prices will fall.

"I maintain the view that shorting the U.S. fixed-income market is still the trade of the decade," writes Kass in a new post for RealMoneyPro.

"And, despite the known headwinds of slowing domestic and non-U.S. economic growth and the threat of the fiscal cliff, I now believe that the potential exists for bonds to experience pricing pressure (and an increase in bond yields) over the near term."

He provides eight reasons for his ongoing bearish call on Treasuries.  Here are three big ones...MORE
What Clusterstock doesn't mention and what Mr. Kass would probably prefer investors not think about is his recordwith this recommendation:
This is from August 2, 2012:

Doug Kass and the WORST Trade of the Decade
Something to keep in mind. Real pros don't double down, they double up.
From LearnBonds:

Doug Kass called US Treasuries “The Short of the Decade” in an interview he did in this week’s Barron’s....MORE