Here's the Artemis blog putting on their weather-risk management hats:
It looks like the U.S. is heading for another ‘warmer than average’ winter in the 2012/2013 heating demand season, according to a forecast from MDA EarthSat Weather, a consulting group for weather risk and commodity weather products and services. Their seasonal winter outlook covering December 2012 to February 2013 predicts that the season will average warmer than the 30-year temperature normal (1981-2010) as a whole.
This has an impact on many firms whose businesses are affected by temperature, particularly energy firms. With heating demand predicted to be lower than average, based upon Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (GWHDDs), it’s likely that an uptick in demand for weather derivatives and insurance contracts which pay out based on temperature measurements will be seen.
The forecast from MDA EarthSat Weather predicts 2555 GWHDDs for the season, which falls slightly below the 30-year normal (2585) and 10-year normal (2588). MDA expect the warmest anomalies to exist across the north-central U.S. and a more seasonal outlook across the south.
“While we’re favoring a warmer than normal winter with decreased heating demand, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of last winter’s record warmth,” said Bob Haas, Weather Operations Manager at MDA EarthSat. “There are still some downside risks that need to be monitored as the season approaches such as the potential for blocking in the upper latitudes which can drive additional cool air south into the U.S..”...MORE
