Monday, August 20, 2012

Shanghai Index Within 7 Points of Jan. 2009 Prices

Until the food inflation* situation plays out the PBOC will remain cautious and deliberate. The bank is aware of the very real risk of deflation so it's a pretty good bet they'll ease, the question is when.
The Shanghai Index closed at 2108.96. The 52-week (and 44 month) low was 2100.25.
From Reuters:
China interest rate swaps at 3-month high on delay in easing

China's interest rate swaps(IRS) traded at three-month highs on Monday on tight 
liquidity and dampened expectations for monetary easing, with traders at a loss 
to predict when the central bank will cut banks' required reserve ratio (RRR) further.
The rate on one-year IRS touched 2.98 percent on Monday morning, its highest 
since mid-May, while five-year IRS reached 2.99 percent, the highest since May 25.
    "There's just no money," said a trader at a city commercial
bank in Shanghai

*See Friday's "Food price inflation now visible in China"  or Sunday's LA Times: "China worries about social fallout of soybean oil price jump"