Sunday, August 19, 2012

Hurricane Watch: Invest 94L Aiming at Jamaica, Gulf of Mexico; Hurricane Gordon Hits Cat 2, Still Heading for Europe

While the ensemble model has the storm headed for the east coast one of the models has Invest 94L going directly over Jamaica (Greater Antilles) before entering the Gulf of Mexico.
Via Wunderblog:

...Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures will be near 27°C through Monday, then warm to 28°C by Tuesday night. As is typical with storms making the crossing from Africa to the Antilles, dry air to the north will likely interfere with development, and the SHIPS model predicts increased dry air as 94L approaches the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. 

However, with shear expected to be low, dry air may be less of an issue for 94L than it was for Ernesto or TD 7. Our two best performing models--the GFS and ECMWF--have both been taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles with every run for the past 36 hours. Both models continue to agree on the timing, with 94L arriving Wednesday night or Thursday morning. 

The BAMM model, which performed as well as the ECMWF and GFS at 5-day forecasts in 2011, is showing a track just north of the Lesser Antilles. Given this agreement among our top three models for long-range forecasts, I give a 60% chance that 94L will pass through the Lesser Antilles. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. ...MORE
And from Hurricane Track:
Hurricane Gordon proves once again that high ocean heat content is not needed to produce a significant hurricane. Top winds have made it to 110 mph which is just under major hurricane intensity. It also noteworthy that it reached this strength well out of the deep tropics, a common phenomenon in recent years it seems. However, cooler water temps await and Gordon should begin to weaken before passing the southern portion of the Azores Islands. It should then dissipate completely before having a chance to impact Portugal…yes, Portugal....MORE