Thursday, August 9, 2012

Dow Theory: The Trannies Have Spread Wide Open

From our July post "Global Trade And Logistics Bellwether UPS Misses Top and Bottom Line, Cuts Forecast (UPS)":
Hardcore practitioners think that Dow Theory was ruined in January 1970 when Dow Jones dropped 9 of the 20 railroads and substituted three trucking companies and worse yet, six passenger airlines simultaneously changing the name from the Railroad Average to the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

The inclusion of FedEx and UPS brought the index back toward its original purpose, companies that move stuff.

UPS is down 3.41% at $75.29.
The trannies are down 1.21% at 4952.
I've no idea whether Dow Theory still works.
Today the average is over one hundred points higher at 5058.
From ZeroHedge:

...LT Industrials vs Transports...


And from this morning's MarketWatch:
...It bothers me that this fits in eerily well with octogenarian veteran Richard Russell’s worrying, in his Dow Theory Letters comment posted after the market close Wednesday, about the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA -0.14%  persistent refusal to close above its May peak of 13,279.32. 

Coupled with deterioration in the Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT -0.38% , this causes Russell to suspect an imminent Dow theory sell signal....MORE