Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Dow Jones Industrials Approaching Resistance (Rising Wedge at the top of a 70-Year Channel)

There are two reasons that technical analysis has any validity:
1) Because so many people and computers can recognize an inverted head-and-shoulders or a moving average or a bearish pennant etc. that you have to be aware of what's happening just to know what the crowd might be thinking.

2) Stocks have "chart-memory". If a down-move has halted at a certain price level the bet, until reality changes, is that it will happen again. Or take a stock hitting new highs. There is no overhead supply coming from investors who cut a deal with God-"Oh Lord, if I can just get back to even I'll never buy the specs again" or somesuch.

This is why it's a bit silly to apply technical analysis to something that doesn't trade, a ratio or a fourth derivative of a price series, there is no chart memory so you're just proving that humans are pattern-recognizing animals with an urge to impose order where there may not be any. Or as the Rock Man said to Oblio in The Point: "You sees what you want to see, and you hears what you want to hear".

There is, unfortunately, no magic.

From Advisor Perspecives:
Fearless Dow at 70-Year Resistance
The Dow is nearing a 70-year resistance line, at the top of a rising wedge and Fear levels are hitting lows not seen in the past few years.

In the past this combo has been a time to be cautious on the markets. Two-thirds of the time a rising wedge suggests lower prices are ahead.

In the above example there is no chart-memory, nonagenarian fund managers excepted, so the only reason the DJIA pattern might matter is if the crowd thinks it matters.
The VIX on the other hand...