Wednesday, August 15, 2012

As Treasuries Tumble TLT Tests Support (TLT; TBT)

Following up on last week's "It Looks Like Long-term Bonds Are Finally Rolling Over (will Doug Kass be saved from his worst trade ever?) TLT; TBT".
From Slope of Hope:
I'm leaning bearish for the rest of the year, though very much with an open mind that it could go the other way. One thing I've been watching and writing about as very important for the bear case for the remainder of 2012 is what's happening on TLT. Major support is at 123.5 to 124, and that was tested last Thursday. TLT bounced there, formed an IHS that never broke up, and then retested the lows yesterday. If we are to see a resumption of the uptrend on bonds, this is the likely place to see that happen. If support fails however then TLT will most likely fall considerably further (targets on the chart below), and that will give a considerable following wind to equity bulls. The strength of this support level is best seen on the 60min chart:

(click to enlarge)
If support holds, then we have a possible W or double-bottom on positive RSI divergence and with a target in the 129 area....MORE