Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Natural Gas Hits 5 1/2 Month High as Cooling Degree Days Jump 20-50% Above Last Year

The expiring July futures settled at $2.767 after trading as high as $2.946. The August got as high as $2.975.

This is the third time in the last four months  that the roll up the contango ladder has stuck, at least for a couple days/
The heat wave has come back with a vengence, here's the National Weather Service Cooling Degree Day forecast June 23 through 30:

COOLING DEGREE DAY DATA WEEKLY FORECAST
     POPULATION-WEIGHTED STATE,REGIONAL,AND NATIONAL AVERAGES
              CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER-NCEP-NWS-NOAA
 
             LAST DATE OF FORECAST WEEK IS JUN 30, 2012
      LAST DATE OF OBSERVED WEEKLY LAST YR IS JUN 30, 2011
   SEASONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FROM JAN  1, 2012 TO JUN 23, 2012
         -999 = NORMAL LESS THAN 100 OR RATIO INCALCULABLE
 
   STATE         FCST  FCST FCST   ****  OBSERVED SEASONAL  ****
                 WEEK  WEEK WEEK   ****    ACCUMULATIONS    ****
                 TOTAL DEV  DEV     TOTAL DEV   DEV   DEV   DEV
                       FROM FROM          FROM  FROM  FROM  FROM
                       NORM L YR          NORM  L YR  NORM  L YR
                                                      PRCT  PRCT
           2000 CDD normals implemented 1/1/2003 
 ALABAMA           111   18   12     721   201   -31    39    -4
 ARIZONA           166   26   -2    1016   206   176    25    21
 ARKANSAS          113   18  -13     736   287    58    64     9
 CALIFORNIA         21  -19    5      72  -111    16   -61    29
 COLORADO           76   56   40     117    77    68  -999  -999
 CONNECTICUT        69   34   37      97    20    -9  -999  -999
 DELAWARE           78   14    8     346   146   -61    73   -15
 FLORIDA           118    3    3    1458   231   -38    19    -3
 GEORGIA           101   13    2     621   155   -81    33   -12
 IDAHO              33    7    4     114    56    75  -999  -999
 ILLINOIS           65   11   28     339   136    98    67    41
 INDIANA            63    8   27     309    94    33    44    12
 IOWA               88   34   41     329   128    69    64    27
 KANSAS            122   38    9     537   218    71    68    15
 KENTUCKY           81   14   31     420   143     6    52     1
 LOUISIANA         127   13   -5    1191   363    37    44     3
 MAINE              20    7   10      31    15    12  -999  -999
 MARYLAND           66    4    2     279    78   -65    39   -19
 MASSACHUSETTS      57   29   31      76    23   -11  -999  -999
 MICHIGAN           47   11   27     195    74    38    61    24
 MINNESOTA          52   20   16     190    79    77    71    68
 MISSISSIPPI       111    8    0     742   131   -25    21    -3
 MISSOURI           95   22   20     484   197    84    69    21
 MONTANA            41   26   25      57    29    40  -999  -999
 NEBRASKA          126   62   63     397   169   138    74    53
 NEVADA            110   10    6     645   161   265    33    70
 NEW HAMPSHIRE      29   10   13      72    35     1  -999  -999
 NEW JERSEY         69   21   16     192    66   -24    52   -11
 NEW MEXICO         94   35    3     346   141    60    69    21
 NEW YORK           51   14   20     140    46     5  -999  -999
 NORTH CAROLINA     92   14  -11     493   159  -113    48   -19
 NORTH DAKOTA       49   20   10     124    29    61  -999  -999
 OHIO               58   13   29     266   102    34    62    15
 OKLAHOMA          123   22  -26     720   269   -17    60    -2
 OREGON             10   -1    0      37    19    18  -999  -999
 PENNSYLVANIA       50    9   21     176    53   -31    43   -15
 RHODE ISLAND       41   14   19      68    22     4  -999  -999
 SOUTH CAROLINA    102    8  -11     634   144  -110    29   -15
 SOUTH DAKOTA       73   26   26     217    70   109    48   101
 TENNESSEE          89   14   16     500   169   -26    51    -5
 TEXAS             141   23   -8    1179   348   -72    42    -6
 UTAH               60   20   16     172    68   127    65   282
 VERMONT            21    4   11      69    32    17  -999  -999
 VIRGINIA           79   16    5     347   130   -81    60   -19
 WASHINGTON         10    1    4      20     1     8  -999  -999
 WEST VIRGINIA      59   13   23     271   109    -2    67    -1
 WISCONSIN          49   17   31     182    81    90    80    98
 WYOMING            56   36   32      69    29    55  -999  -999
   REGION
 NEW ENGLAND        51   26   27      76    32    -5  -999  -999
 MIDDLE ATLANTIC    55   15   19     162    62   -12    62    -7
 E N CENTRAL        57   12   28     266   112    59    73    29
 W N CENTRAL        87   29   24     362   154    83    74    30
 SOUTH ATLANTIC     96    9    1     768   175   -70    30    -8
 E S CENTRAL        97   14   16     579   173   -20    43    -3
 W S CENTRAL       135   21  -10    1093   348   -39    47    -3
 MOUNTAIN          100   33   14     454   148   125    48    38
 PACIFIC            19  -13    4      62   -63    15   -50    32
 
 UNITED STATES      74   12   12     434   120     5    38     1