Friday, February 17, 2012

Citigroup: "Resurging North American Oil Production and the Death of the Peak Oil Hypothesis"

You won't find a lot of information about peak oil on our site.*
I cut my teeth on the energy biz and never found the gloomsters persuasive enough to bet money on their predictions. Yes, I know hydrocarbons as we currently use them are a finite resource and yes I know Hubbert's curve but I also know that my lifespan is also a finite resource. Human creativity is discounted at your financial peril and life is short, so I post on other stuff. Except today. This is a big deal.
From the Wall Street Journal's The Source blog:
Citigroup Says Peak Oil Is Dead
Citigroup announced to the world Thursday that peak oil is dead. The controversial idea that world crude oil production is almost at its peak and will soon begin an irrevocable long-term decline has been laid to rest in the highly productive shale oil formations of North Dakota, with potentially big consequences for oil prices, the bank said.

However, despite this reading of last rites, the data suggest it would be premature to pronounce this patient dead.

Changes in oil markets in the past decade have given significant traction to the argument that world oil production is close to peaking. Despite the huge incentive of a near-threefold increase in the price of benchmark Brent crude from 2000 to 2010, the world barely managed to eke out a 10% increase in crude oil production, according to BP data.
Many have argued that this proves the physical limit on global crude oil production is near, or may already have been passed.

“The belief that global oil production has peaked, or is on the cusp of doing so, has helped to fuel oil’s more than decade-long rally,” Citigroup said in a note to clients. “This is now all changing because of what is happening in North Dakota,” where new technology has led to a large and unexpected surge in oil production from shale rock....MORE
*A search of the site turns up a handful of posts, out of thousands:

Re-post: Peak Oil Stalwart to Shutter Forum/News Site, Persue Career as Astrologer
Knocking peak oil
Worry About Bread Not Oil
Pique Oil
Tar sands and peak oil in 1930
Peak Oil? Not When You Have a Really Long Hose

And from 2009's "Natural Gas: "The Hubbert's Peak theory of rock n' roll" and "Do these LNG export slowdowns change the balance?':

Rock to Oil chart.jpg Peak music output, 1965. Peak oil production, in 1970. So there’s a five-year lag between good music/good production?
The folks at OverThinkingIt are being true to their name by overlaying Rolling Stone Magazine’s list of the 500 greatest rock songs of all time with U.S. oil production history.
Their findings: our decline in oil resources matches the decline in good songs.
“Now, if only we could drill for some new reserves of pop music innovation. Perhaps there’s a new Motown hit machine waiting somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, waiting to be unleashed. Let’s get drilling.”
I wonder what music is driving the expansion of natural gas production from shales?