Thursday, September 15, 2011

Pray for Texas (and maybe buy some cotton futures): "Historic La Nina imminent?"

Cotton is trading down today at 110.770. While down considerably from the April highs over two bucks, the white stuff had a 16% runup since we posted "Cotton is Deer Nuts (ARO; TRLG; VFC)" on July 15.

Here's the chart from our April 19 post "Commodity Prices tend to be Mean-Reverting (cotton)" click to enlarge:

Here's Bloomberg earlier this morning:
Record Texas Drought Burning Cotton Farmers as Their ‘White Gold’ Withers

And here's where it get's ugly. Last year's La Nina was bad. The one that's forming right now could be horrific.

Lifted in toto from Hide the Decline:

Historic La Nina imminent? - Part 2

The latests NCEP/CFS prediction shows up to -2,1 K for ENSO index:

 - And still counting.
 In one single month of the 1955 La Nina we also had -2,1 K:

In other words, we are close to a huge La Nina and global cooling period, just in a few months, in fact, starting now.

That is, if the NCEP/CFS prognosis is correct.
I find it extremely interesting that NO OTHER MODELS has predicted such a massive cold just a few months ahead...:

Only the red NCEP/CFS model had the ability to predict this cooling....    if true.
So the next months are truly exciting: If NCEP/CFS is correct we will see one of the biggest collective model errors on record.

We'll have more on what this means next week.