Monday, September 26, 2011

Repost:Euro: Quick Recovery From Opening Gap Down Even As China Says Again It Won't Bail Out Europe (EUR/USD)

A couple readers have said they couldn't see half this post in their reader so here goes.
Original post:
As we said in last Monday's "Euro Tumbles Below $1.36, And That May Not Be All (EUR/USD)":
The first rule of global macro is, if you  can get the currency right the rest is a lot easier. EUR/USD currently 1.3614....
From ZeroHedge:
EURUSD opened down 80pips, to below Friday's lows, but has somewhat rapidly recovered those losses shifting into the green now in very early (and thin) trading. We assume this means the market has still not processed the latest news from China, which officially refutes, for the third time, rumors of an imminent Chinese bailout. From Bloomberg: "It’s “too early” to determine how emerging economies can further help the euro area overcome its sovereign debt crisis because reforms are still under way, China’s Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. “We need to first see if euro-zone countries can implement their July 21 decision,” Zhou told reporters at the International Monetary Fund in Washington on Sept. 24, referring to a pledge by European leaders to expand the powers of a regional rescue fund....MORE

Sept. 6
Euro on the Precipice
A stronger dollar would not be good for U.S. equities. EUR/USD is up ten pips at 1.4107.
SoH is looking for a February 2013 bottom while we are thinking mid 2014....
Sept. 9
No Support for the Euro (EUR/USD)

Sept. 13

The former future reserve currency is trading at 1.3675 down 4 pips.
Sept. 18

Sept. 19
The first rule of ecology is "Everything is connected". It's in figuring out those connections that you get paid
The advantage and disadvantage of global macro is It Is Not Easy. You have to pay attention and you have to understand the interrelationships of many markets and politics and weather and psychology and be facile in both words and numbers and in an ego-driven business be humble enough to learn the lessons the market will teach you.

It really helps to not take yourself too seriously, both to avoid the temptation to impose your will upon the market and to maintain enough perspective to spot opportunities ahead of the crowd.
Because global macro isn't easy the rewards can be tremendous.