Thursday, September 1, 2011

Canada: No Collapse in Housing Bubble but Now GDP is Shrinking (EWC; ZEB; HIF)

The symbols are Canadian ETF's that might be worth a look, there are a few more.

Although Canada does not have an institution equivalent to Fannie Mae, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) insures mortgages which makes private lenders a bit more prone to risk taking than they would be in its absence.

A twofer. First up Carpe Diem:
From today's report on Canadian home prices for June:

"Canadian home prices in June were up 1.7% from the previous month, according to the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index. This rise took the index to a new high of 144.27 (June 2005 = 100). It was the third consecutive monthly increase exceeding 1% and the largest rise since August 2009.

It was also the seventh consecutive monthly increase, coming after three straight monthly declines. As in April and May, prices were up in all six of the metropolitan markets surveyed. What is new is that in all six markets the June monthly rise was at least 1%, a first since April 2005. It was 2.0% in Toronto, 1.7% in Vancouver and Ottawa, 1.6% in Calgary, 1.1% in Montreal and 1.0% in Halifax."

MP: The chart above shows how the Canadian home price index compares to the 20-city Case-Shiller Composite Index for the U.S., when both indexes are adjusted to equal 100 in January 2000.  From 2000 to 2005, home prices in the U.S. doubled (+100%), while Canadian home prices increased by only 50%.  Since then, U.S. home prices have fallen by 30% and Canadian home prices increased by another 40%.  Compared to January 2000, U.S. home prices have appreciated by 41% and Canadian home prices are up by 112%....MORE
And from Real Time Economics: 
What Does Canada’s Shrinking GDP Say About U.S.?
Grim news just arrived from north of the border that is telling us something gloomy about our economic health.

New data show Canada’s economy unexpectedly went into reverse gear in the second quarter of the year, declining 0.1%. That’s an annualized drop of 0.4%, down from growth of 3.6% in the first quarter....