Sunday, January 2, 2011

Hilary Kramer: "Nine game changers for 2011"

We last visited hilary in a January 2008 interview with Paul Kangas and I closed with the comment:
At the close Hilary was 1 for 3 but hey, in the majors they're paying $45,000 per at-bat for that kind of performance...

KRAMER: Yes, Paul. I believe we have seen the bottom and we are going to now see a bull come back into Wall Street....
That was 14 months before the actual bottom. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 1700 points from the all-time intraday high but had a further 6100 points to drop.
Here she does some big picture stuff at MarketWatch:

Commentary: Trends to move markets and help you profit
The new year is almost here, and evidence that we are about to see better economic growth, corporate profitability, and yes, higher stock prices in the new year is piling up.

A warning: Markets like this one are tricky to navigate, full of dead ends for the unprepared investor.
I’ve identified nine game changers that will affect your money in 2011. Read on to find out which trends will move the markets and help you profit, where you should — and should not — put your money, which sectors will be hot, and just how high the indexes will go.
China’s torrid growth
Markets around the world breathlessly watch China to see how the country is managing inflation, fearing that the Chinese juggernaut will slow too much. Well, yes, growth probably will slow — but most analysts expect that. A fall from 10% annual growth to 7% to 8% in the coming years is already priced in, not to mention that an economy that is growing at that rate is doing just fine.

The true risk with China is that too many investors are playing yesterday’s winners. Entrepreneurialism, higher wages, insatiable energy consumption and a middle class that keeps growing and purchasing are unstoppable trends in China in 2011.

The smart way to make money in China these days is by going after the companies that will profit from those trends, like China Nepstar  (NPD 3.83, +0.40, +11.66%)  , a drugstore chain. Read about three risks to avoid when investing in China stocks on InvestorPlace.

Commodities stay hot, get even hotter
Gold will hit $2,000 an ounce in 2011, but that’s not where you should put your money, no matter what Wall Street wants you to think. The real story is scrap metal, steel and coal....MORE
If China cools dramatically the commodity plays would be on the short side.
If oil, and thus gasoline, prices tip the U.S. economy back into recession all long side bets would be off.
Unfortunately she also said: