Wednesday, December 9, 2009

BOHICA* "Solar: Huge Poly Glut Coming In 2010, Soleil Analyst Says" (FSLR; LDK)

*BOHICA=Bend Over, Here It Comes Again.

From Tech Trader Daily:

The solar industry should brace for a huge glut of polysilicon in 2010, Soleil Securities analyst Paul Lemming warns today, with prices likely to head sharply lower.

Over the next three quarters, he calculates, the amount of polysilicon available to the solar market is going to increase by about 70%. He says it is true that the poly market became “snug” in the third quarter due to a jump in seasonal installations, but adds that conditions will change in the 2010 first half “as every major producer of polysilicon ramps new capacity.”

He thinks the industry is facing the prospect of 60%-80% over supply next year, with no hope of a more balanced market before sometime in 2011 at the earliest.

In Lemming’s view, the spot price of polysilicon is heading to the mid $30s per kg over the next six months - from $50-$55 range - with prices below $30 “not out of the question.”>>>MORE