Friday, December 18, 2009

Trina, Belle of the Solar Ball (TSL; LDK)

I was thinking about Trina (up 91 cents to $51.53) in comparison to LDK (down 12.6%) this morning and remembered a few posts:
Trina Solar Cancels Plans for $1 Billion Polysilicon Plant, Stock Up Another 7%* (TSL)
That was back in April '08. I don't know if management foresaw the coming glut but it sure turned out to be the right move.
Another smart move was raising $120 Mil. in July '08 even though it spanked the stock:

Trina Prices, Market Slices (TSL)
This is the flush. The stock was recently at $28.00 after bottoming at $26.58. As we said when they announced the financing "Good idea, bad timing".
From the press release via Yahoo Finance:

Trina Solar Prices $120 Million of Convertible Senior Notes and Up to 4,073,194 American Depositary Shares
TSL is a favorite of the Chinese government who helped arrange this hunk o'loot, September:

Trina Solar receives US$304 million loan facility to support 500MW capacity expansion project. And: "Says Solar Credit Crunch to Ease Next Year (TSL)

Here's another post from Sep. 8, '09:
Solar crisis set to hit in 2010, 50% of manufacturers may not survive, says The Information Network

Better check those balance sheets boys and girls.

Liquidity is expensive but illiquidity is much more so. The stock is up $0.84.

Sometimes analysts (and companies) get lucky. Sometimes they actually know what they're doing.
If there is any doubt of the implicit ChiGov backing for little Trina, consider that their major polysilicon supplier is GCL:
UPDATE 1-Trina extends silicon deal with GCL-Poly

* Extends supply contract by 5 yrs to 2021

* To take deliveries of wafers from 2010

NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) said on Wednesday it had extended by five years its contract to buy polysilicon from GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd (3800.HK) through 2021

Trina, which began receiving polysilicon from GCL-Poly's unit Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co in 2008, will take delivery of enough of the material to manufacture 8,500 MW of solar modules over the 13 years of the contract.

Prices for polysilicon, the key material used to turn sunlight into electricity in most solar cells, have tumbled sharply in the past year from more than $300 per kilogram to about $60 as growth in the renewable energy sector slowed....

In November China's sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp. put $710 million into GCL.
On Tuesday they boosted the stake a bit by way of a joint venture:
UPDATE 1-GCL-Poly says plans JV with CIC in early 2010
The article had this tidbit:

...Beijing has been imposing curbs on the country's renewable energy sector as it tries to address overcapacity and collapsing prices. Analysts have said that while the moves could squeeze out smaller competitors, they would be a boon to larger operators, including GCL-Poly, solar company Yingli Energy Holdings (YGE.N), and wind equipment maker China High Speed Transmission (0658.HK).

GCL-Poly, which competes with German chemicals group Wacker Chemie (WCHG.DE) and Hemlock Semiconductor Corp, has said it aims to cut production costs to $30 per kg from $36 per kg by the end of 2010, by recycling materials and producing its own electricity.
It's all good for Trina.

I've said "Trina Solar Trumps Them All (TSL)"
Morningstar said simply "Trina Still China's Best Solar Firm"
Trina Solar TSL reported strong third-quarter results, bolstering our belief that it is the world's best solar company besides First Solar FSLR. Even compared with the other major Chinese solar companies, Trina is superior, in our opinion....MORE
See also:
Trina Solar: First Solar Won’t Be Low-Cost Leader for Long (FSLR; TSL)