Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Tom Konrad's "Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2010" (BGC; MTZ; WM...and seven more) PBW

Tom had a good year in '09, up an average of 57%. He (and we) did suffer from some altitude sickness in June, we covered it in "AltEnergyStocks Cautiously Cautions: Be Cautious":

...In Monday's "Solar: Street Feeling Upbeat After Intersolar Conference (Short 'em?)" it was:

Funny, I was just musing "What level should I start scaling in some shorts?". I'm not kidding.
Time to look at the MACD, grab a Big Mac, be the mac daddy, maybe Mack the Knife*....
Kudos to Tom. He may be a few percentage points early but booking 70% or so sure isn't dumb.
And just yesterday, although I think it could quadruple over 36-48 months, I suggested a partner may want to write some calls on Trina (TSL)!
(those calls paid off as TSL didn't exceed the strike before expiring. Then the stock doubled.)
From AltEnergyStocks:

A mini-portfolio of stocks that not only are green, but should outperform the market in an environment of increasing concern about climate change and peak oil.

This is the third annual list of green stocks I have published. In 2008, it was a list of ten speculative alternative energy companies (in three parts) that I thought might catch public notice that year. As we all now know, 2008 was a horrible year for speculative stocks, and my stocks were no exception, losing an average of 55% that year, although that still ended up being better than seven out of nine of the sector mutual funds and ETFs that I was then tracking.

In 2009, my ten green stock picks were more conservative, with a focus on profitable companies with good cash flow. The results have been better than I hoped. These 10 picks gained an average of 57%, beating my benchmarks by an even wider margin. I'll be surprised if I do as well in 2010, but if there's one thing the stock market delivers reliably, it is surprises.

10 for '10

In November, I wrote a series of articles for the beginning investor in clean energy, and I plan to follow my own advice with this list, putting emphasis on those clean energy sectors that most investors are not giving enough attention. Once you've decided how much of your portfolio to put in clean energy, splitting that investment evenly between these ten stocks should give you exposure to the best clean energy sectors, as well as decent diversification. In other words, these ten stocks are intended as a substitute for a clean energy Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).

In late 2008, when I was putting together my list for 2009, I had a relatively easy time. Fear was rampant, and there were many great companies selling for single-digit multiples of earnings. Today, complacency and greed have returned to the markets, and good values are very hard to come by. The following 10 are mostly the result of culling through our Alternative Energy Stock lists for companies in my favored sectors that look ready for the premature end of the recovery: Companies with strong balance sheets, good cash flow and profitability at not-too-expensive multiples.

Electric Grid & Electricity Storage (30%)


Efficient/Clean Transportation (30%)


Energy Efficiency (30%)

Biomass, Waste to Energy, Recycling - 10%

Simplified Portfolio...MORE

See also:
In Review: 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2009