Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Euro Faces ‘Bearish Setup’ Against Dollar: Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is currently at 1.4717.
From Bloomberg:
The euro may drop against the dollar to a level last reached in August if it fails to rally past resistance levels, according to Citigroup Inc.

The euro is facing a “bearish setup” versus the greenback, with a large gap between the 55- and 200-day moving averages, Citigroup’s Tom Fitzpatrick and Aron Gera in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote in a note to clients today, citing momentum indicators.

“Overall, we continue to expect a test of the 200-day moving average, which is now at $1.4118,” the analysts wrote. That would be a drop of more than 4 percent from yesterday’s close of $1.4704.

Investors should watch the resistance levels at $1.48, then a “double-top neckline” at $1.4827 and the 55-day moving average at $1.4854, according to Citigroup....MORE


"Dollar: not dead, just smells funny" (DXY)

EUR/USD $1.5052. The spot U.S. Dollar index is at 74.45, up about 1/10% on the day.
Definitely in the running for 'Headline of the Day', from Mineweb...
Dollar Sliding Into New Trading Range

From MarketBeat:

The euro hit a fresh high for 2009 at $1.5144 as selloff in the greenback took another big jump in New York afternoon trading....
Making this pronouncement from a week ago look a bit silly:
I don't have anything concrete I can point to but 1.50 EUR/USD almost feels as if someone has drawn a line in the sand. As more and more money piles into the trade without movement past that line you start to lose the mo-mo traders and the psychology can shift fast.

If the buck were to turn and head back to say, 1.20, the results for equities and gold would be painful.
I'm just sayin'...
It's either one of those "I may be in error but never in doubt" statements a rookie would never refer back to or it's a Maxwell Smart moment: "Missed it by thissss much".
[or it's like spring '08 when you said $1.53 and we went to $1.59 in July -ed]
I'm leaning toward Humble Student of the Markets' interpretation...