Monday, April 27, 2009

Swine flu: Who actually benefits? - CSFB

See! It's not just me!* [okay, I'm sorry about the profiteering crack -ed].
From Notable calls:
Credit Suisse notes Roche and GSK could see an EPS benefit of ca 0.5% for every incremental
$200M of flu related sales. Roche/Chugai/Gilead are the most likely to benefit (through increased Tamiflu sales) although GSK may also gain (through increased Relenza sales). In the longer-term, companies with pandemic flu vaccine know how may be able to develop a pandemic vaccine, and we may also see an increase in overall influenza vaccines. The main pandemic and seasonal manufacturers are GSK, Sanofi- Aventis and Novartis....
...Notablecalls: OK, let's get something straight - NVAX, HEB, SVA etc. will all run on this swine flu hype but I strongly suggest you don't overstay your welcome in these. Yes, NVAX was a $10+ stock during the bird flu scare but that does NOT mean it will be a $10 stock again when pigs attack.

The real beneficiaries are likely to be the big players like Roche and GSK (GILD to some extent) but the stocks are just too sleepy to have any real actionable upside.

I see GILD up 3 pts early on - come on, this one has a $40+ bln. market cap. Get a grip, people.


*See yesterday's posts:
Trade the Flu! (Headlines at 12:05 a.m. EDT April 27, 2009)
Swine Flu Spreads Panic Over The Web
Swine Flu Links: U.S. Declares Flu Emergency