Thursday, April 2, 2009

Best Starts to Quarters in History

From Bespoke Investment Group:
Yesterday's 2.01% gain in the Dow was the 28th time since 1900 that the index started a quarter with a gain of more than 2%. Below we highlight these 28 instances along with the Dow's return for the rest of the quarter. Historically, a strong first day to the quarter hasn't necessarily meant that the gains will continue over the next three months. While the average returns for the rest of the quarter have been positive following the prior 27 +2% days, the rest of the quarter has only been positive 55% of the time. We've also seen two strong starts to quarters in the current bear market, and the rest of the quarter saw declines of 10% or more in both of these instances....GO To B.I.G. for the table.
UPDATE: The DJIA closed at 7978.08, B.I.G. posted this just before the close:

Best 2-Day Starts to a Quarter for the Dow
The Dow is currently on track to have its second best 2-day start to a quarter since 1900. If the Dow were to close at current levels, it would be up 5.28% over the last two days. To be the best start to a quarter, the index would need to close above 8,119. And to drop to 3rd best, it would need to close below 7,973. Below we highlight all 2-day starts to a quarter that have seen a gain of 3% or more....MORE