Cowen analyst Robert Stone this mornings cut estimates for the solar sector across the board, asserting that Street estimates for at least the first half of 2009 are too high, and there could be further downside if project credit conditions do not improve.
“Street estimates generally have Q1 revenue flat-to-up sequentially, but we see a down tick as more likely,” he writes. “The main sticking point appears to be project financing, rather than the price of modules. Smaller systems are more likely to find cash buyers or owner equity financing along with renewable-specific loans in markets such as Germany and Japan. However, larger projects are likely to be hampered by tight credit and lack of third-party tax equity.”...
...Stone made the following estimate cuts:
- China Sunergy (CSUN): ‘09 to 23 cents, from 59 cents; ‘10 to 84 cents, from 95 cents.
- Energy Conversion Devices (ENER): ‘09 to $1.51, from $1.68; ‘10 to $2.68, from $3.48.
- Evergreen Solar (ESLR): ‘09 to a loss of 2 cents, from a profit of 7 cents; ‘10 to 25 cents, from 29 cents.
- First Solar (FSLR): ‘09 to $6.07, from $7.42; ‘10 to $8.36, from $10.50.
- SunPower (SPWR): ‘09 to $2.34, from $3; ‘10 to $3.24, from $4.10.
- Trina Solar (TSL): ‘09 to $1.48, from $3.64; ‘10 to $2.78, from $4.98.
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