Saturday, January 31, 2009

Technical Analysis: "Why You Shouldn’t Count on the US Dollar Collapsing Just Yet"

The dollar closed Friday at $1.2805 to the euro, approaching the Oct. 27 low. Here's the 120 day chart:
120 days latest (Jan 30)
lowest (Oct 27)
highest (Aug 21)

Chart via

From Money Morning (Australia):

The US Dollar Index (USDX) has been very choppy for the last 2 months. Two weeks of sharp declines drove the index from 88 to below 80 between December 4 and December 18.

This period covered the year-end general correction on global markets: stocks rebounded, the US Dollar fell back and commodities soared. It was actually only a short-term retracement after a tough second half of 2008 that damaged many investors.

Typically, short-term retracement and correction phases end on technical key points. That’s exactly what happened here with the USD Index. The price action corrected in December to the 61.8% level (point C on the chart) following the 4-month rally from mid-July and mid-November (points A and B).

Click to Enlarge

From the low of December (at 78.775), the index has rebounded by almost 10% to reach 86.2 last Friday. As explained in our last update (Money Morning of November 26), we use a system based on a multi-dimension oscillator to anticipate the price action, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO).

Used to detect overbought and oversold conditions, but also trendiness, divergences, pattern recognitions and chart formations, the CMO often also acts as support and resistance levels....MORE