Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Solar Stocks Getting Rocked. And: Friedman Billings Ramsay Analyst Rocks

UPDATE: An eagle-eyed reader points out that on July 31 FBR upped their target price to $210, from $200. Chickens.

Original Post
For the fifth time in the last six trading sessions the solars are seriously down. Because I am a 'tard and don't know how to give you a screenshot of quotes, I'll give you a snapshot of some of the bigger decliners:

ENER $54.88 -7.03
FSLR $202.38 -20.30
LDK $40.64 -2.64
SPWR $79.79 -6.80
STP $38.37 -2.70
TSL $25.20 -2.05
YGE $13.13 -1.63

Note should be taken of the call that FBR's Mehdi Hosseini made on FSLR back in May with the stock trading around $300 (we won't hold his "buy into earning" on WFR against him, they claimed "storm, fire, dog ate homework", etc.):

First Solar Shares Slide; FBR Cuts Rating To Underperform
First Solar (FSLR) shares are under pressure this morning following a downgrade of the stock to Underperform from Market Perform by Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Mehdi Hosseini. He has a $200 price target on the stock, which is actually up from his old target of $155, but substantially below the recent stock price.

Hosseini writes that he is “increasingly concerned about the margin risk” as the company pursues utility scale projects in the U.S. He says those risks are not in the stock at around $300 a share “and thus not only could be a source of disappointment but could also lead to downside EPS risk.” He contends that installed system prices in the U.S. would have to come down by at least 14% by the end of this year and at least 20% in 2009 for FSLR to compete effectively for utility-scale projects. He also contends that utilities are “a bit reluctant to blindly endorse photovoltaic systems” given limited information on their reliability over a prolonged period of time.

FSLR is down $12.81, or 4.2%, to $286.25.