Odds Of Government Bailout By End of Month at 80%
DO NOT make investment decisions based on this factoid. (that said, I think the odds are closer to 100% and should probably get a bet down on the mispricing)Today Bespoke Investment Group shows us how the contract performed:
...The chart below of the bailout odds looks very similar to a bank stock crashing -- something Congress is getting very used to these days.
That's about as wrong as wrong can be.
(yes I know it went up 11% after we posted, big whoop)
This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.
Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.
By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.
A complete breakdown follows below the fold....MORE