Monday, September 29, 2008

Bailout: "Climateer Sure Was Wrong on His Congressional Bet"

Just five days ago we posted:
Odds Of Government Bailout By End of Month at 80%

DO NOT make investment decisions based on this factoid. (that said, I think the odds are closer to 100% and should probably get a bet down on the mispricing)
Today Bespoke Investment Group shows us how the contract performed:
...The chart below of the bailout odds looks very similar to a bank stock crashing -- something Congress is getting very used to these days.


That's about as wrong as wrong can be.

(yes I know it went up 11% after we posted, big whoop)


Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout

This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.

Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.

By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.

A complete breakdown follows below the fold....MORE