Thursday, April 10, 2008

Solar Sector: Current Drivers of the Group (ESLR; FSLR; JASO; LDK; SPWR; STP; YGE)

I think the writer and headline writer were two different people.
I don't have a problem with using oil prices as a shorthand for the energy complex if it's done consciously.
(when oil is correlated to coal, as it currently seems to be.). It's akin to using the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a snapshot of the market's feelings toward large caps. But when the writer goes out of his way to mention coal in the first sentence, well...
From IBD via CNN Money:

Tax Incentives, Oil Prices Drive Solar Sector

Fast-rising coal prices have been the main driver boosting the Energy-Other industry group.

Solar-power stocks, which represent 31% of the group's market capitalization, have also gained ground the past several weeks.

The 10 leading solar stocks sold off 50%, as a group, December through March. They recovered after the Dow's March 20 follow-through and are a combined 21% below their peak. The group remains up more than 100% the past 12 months.

News on the solar front is mixed. Despite high oil prices, solar demand in the U.S. continues to hinge on tax incentives, and the federal Energy Act incentives are set to expire this year. Efforts to extend them are under way, but so far have been unsuccessful.

Still, this year's earnings estimates in the segment average 130%. The average growth outlook for 2009 is 65%....MORE