Sunday, April 27, 2008

Proposition Bets, Markets, and Suckers, from Jeff Watson

From Daily Speculations:

When I was a kid, I was always looking for an easy way to make money. My dad used to point out laborers working in the hot sun, explaining that "Those guys were the ones who didn't care about their grades." As always, my dad was 100% correct, and I didn't want to end up like that, preferring to make money in an easier manner.

Since I liked to play games as a kid, I tried to get as good as I could at whatever game I could master, then play it for cash. I found limited success, but after awhile, my friends avoided playing against me like the plague. During high school, I used to spend a lot of time playing poker in various places that would be considered to be shady, but those games were out of the orbit of my friends and presented opportunities to make money. I played a pretty tight- mechanical game those days, and observed the sharp type of guys, and how they operated. It was in those games, from those guys, that I discovered the beauty of proposition bets. A proposition bet is one of those "I'll bet you that….." followed by what would seem to be an impossible outcome, and a guaranteed win for anyone who would take the bet. Of course, the person taking the bet would be opening his wallet right after he lost....MORE