Tuesday, April 8, 2008

NBER's Feldstein says U.S. sliding into recession. And: The Shape of Things to Come

From Reuters:
Martin Feldstein, who leads the group that is considered the arbiter of U.S. recessions, said on Monday that he personally believes the economy has been sliding into a recession since December or January....MORE

Roubini on Shape of Recession:

Note: A "V" shaped recession is usually short, and fairly shallow like in '90-'91 and '01. Both of those recessions lasted 8 months. A "U" shaped recession is longer and possibly deeper. A "W" shaped recession is a double dip (like in '80 and '81/'82). And an "L" shaped recession is like the experience in Japan in the '90s. Professor Roubini writes: The US Recession: V or U or W or L-Shaped?.

My view is ... a U-shaped recession as I expect that the economic contraction will last at least 12 months and possibly as long as 18 months through the middle of 2009. This view is based on the fact that the last two recessions – in 1990-91 and 2001 – lasted 8 months each and today the macro and financial conditions are worse – relative to those two previous recessions - in at least three dimensions:...

Here's a clean link to Dr. Roubini's RGE Monitor.
HT for the first story and a straight-up link for the second to Calculated Risk