Again, I'll refer you to Ken Fisher's thinking on the Yen. Here's our post "A Phony Rally?".
Just remember the Old Trader's Lament "As soon as you think you've found the key, they go and change the lock".
The yen declined against 14 of the world's 16 most-active currencies as a rebound in Asian stocks encouraged purchases of higher-yielding assets funded by loans in Japan.
The yen trimmed its weekly advance against the euro as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average erased an early loss sparked by concern subprime mortgage losses have already pushed the U.S. into recession. The dollar headed for its second-biggest weekly decline against the yen this year before U.S. President George W. Bush introduces measures to stimulate the economy.
``I'm looking for the yen to weaken further,'' said Masahiro Sato, joint general manager of the treasury division in Tokyo at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co., a unit of Japan's second- largest publicly listed lender. ``Signs of a recovery in stocks will increase risk appetite for overseas assets.''
The yen fell to 156.46 per euro at 2:55 p.m. in Tokyo from 155.99 late yesterday in New York, cutting its weekly advance to 2.7 percent. Japan's currency slid to 106.92 against the dollar from 106.54 yesterday. The dollar was steady against the euro at $1.4642, bound for a 0.9 percent rise this week.
The yen may decline to 109 against the dollar and 106 per euro this month, Sato said.
Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.9 percent, reversing an earlier 3 percent loss, while the MSCI Asia Pacific stock index of regional shares erased a 2.6 percent drop. U.S. stocks had their worst three-day decline since 2002 yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said fiscal stimulus from the government may be needed to revive growth.
Rand, Canadian Dollar
The South African rand, a favorite of the so-called carry trade, rose 0.9 percent to 15.1298 yen. The Canadian dollar, another favorite, gained 0.6 percent to 104.09 yen. Japan's currency declined 0.6 percent to 8.823 South Korean won....MORE