Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Solar Company Capacity Concerns

From the Financial Times:

Green stocks fall
...Second, manufacturers' capacity may soon exceed immediate demand. EPIA's optimistic scenario assumes annual global demand for new generating capacity of about 7GW by 2010. Yet manufacturers' annual productive capacity by then will be about 12GW, according to consensus forecasts. If manufacturers continue to chase scale and market share, the short-term overhang could be larger.

There is a good case for growth in green energy stocks. But the LCD and memory chip markets offer clear parallels for an emergent technology sector hit by overcapacity. A detour in the wilderness may lie ahead.

We've had a couple posts in the last two weeks on the issue of capacity utilization in the solar industry:

A Must Read on Solar Energy Stocks
(FSLR, LDK, WFR, JASO, SPWR, etc., etc.)

Jerome Ball at Alternative Energy Trading hit the blogosphere with a solid first post. This is pro-level research. Here's a snip from
"PV Industry Oversupply in 2008":

Capacity Utilization for Solar Panel Suppliers at 0.46 for 2008, Says The Information Network (ESLR; FSLR; LDK; JASO; SPWR; SOLF; STP)